Edwy
AI Primer

Statistics · Module 7

Estimation, sampling, and bias

Estimation

Using a sample of data to guess a property of the whole population. "What is the average customer spend?" answered with 500 receipts.

Sampling

How you select data shapes everything that follows. Bad samples give confident but wrong answers.

Variance + bias

Variance: how much your estimate jiggles. Bias: how systematically wrong it is. Every model trades one against the other.

Generalisation

Whether a finding on past data still holds on tomorrow’s data. Most AI failures are generalisation failures.

Sample points feeding an estimate with bias and variance bands
Draft for Pooneh review: estimates inherit the shape and bias of their samples.

Estimation check

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1. A biased sample can produce a confident but wrong estimate.

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